Track record
Everything we test, as it came out.
Each row is one test on our own record. We publish all of them - the ones that found an edge and the ones that did not.
26 tests listed · 5 found an edge. "Edge" needs a t-value of 2 or more over at least 8 periods that do not overlap.
| What was compared | Kind | Over | Gap in return | t-value | Periods | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price reaction to the results: above against below | Results | next month | +0.88 % | 1.66 | 33 | Weak |
| Profit surprise confirmed by the price: above against below | Results | next month | +1.38 % | 1.59 | 20 | Weak |
| Profit surprise: above against below | Results | next month | -0.87 % | -1.00 | 23 | No edge |
| Revenue surprise: above against below | Results | next month | +0.45 % | 0.47 | 23 | No edge |
| Price reaction to the results: above against below | Results | next 3 months | +2.01 % | 2.15 | 33 | Edge |
| Profit surprise confirmed by the price: above against below | Results | next 3 months | +3.07 % | 1.83 | 20 | Weak |
| Profit surprise: above against below | Results | next 3 months | -1.74 % | -0.90 | 23 | No edge |
| Revenue surprise: above against below | Results | next 3 months | -0.38 % | -0.25 | 23 | No edge |
| Sector earnings: top third against bottom third | Sectors | next 6 months | -1.12 % | -0.40 | 22 | No edge |
| Sector momentum: top third against bottom third | Sectors | next 6 months | +1.35 % | 0.43 | 22 | No edge |
| Sector score: top third against bottom third | Sectors | next 6 months | +1.57 % | 0.55 | 22 | No edge |
| Sector trend: top third against bottom third | Sectors | next 6 months | +0.31 % | 0.11 | 22 | No edge |
| Sector valuation: top third against bottom third | Sectors | next 6 months | -1.72 % | -0.58 | 22 | No edge |
| Sector earnings: top third against bottom third | Sectors | next 12 months | -6.28 % | -1.30 | 12 | No edge |
| Sector momentum: top third against bottom third | Sectors | next 12 months | +2.12 % | 0.56 | 12 | No edge |
| Sector score: top third against bottom third | Sectors | next 12 months | -3.80 % | -1.21 | 12 | No edge |
| Sector trend: top third against bottom third | Sectors | next 12 months | +2.89 % | 0.88 | 12 | No edge |
| Sector valuation: top third against bottom third | Sectors | next 12 months | +7.05 % | 1.60 | 11 | Weak |
| Oversold: top third against bottom third | Shares, short term | next month | +1.22 % | 3.29 | 170 | Edge |
| Results-day reaction: top third against bottom third | Shares, short term | next month | +0.83 % | 2.34 | 66 | Edge |
| Reversal: top third against bottom third | Shares, short term | next month | +0.60 % | 1.51 | 170 | Weak |
| Short-term score: top third against bottom third | Shares, short term | next month | +1.15 % | 3.13 | 170 | Edge |
| Oversold: top third against bottom third | Shares, short term | next 3 months | +0.77 % | 0.79 | 70 | No edge |
| Results-day reaction: top third against bottom third | Shares, short term | next 3 months | +1.55 % | 2.37 | 27 | Edge |
| Reversal: top third against bottom third | Shares, short term | next 3 months | -0.57 % | -0.59 | 70 | No edge |
| Short-term score: top third against bottom third | Shares, short term | next 3 months | +0.55 % | 0.58 | 70 | No edge |
Chance of a fall: what we gave against what happened
Nifty · next week · fall of 5 % or more4.4 % givenit happened 3.2 % of the time
Nifty · next week · fall of 10 % or more0.9 % givenit happened 0.4 % of the time
Nifty · next month · fall of 5 % or more13.1 % givenit happened 12.5 % of the time
Nifty · next month · fall of 10 % or more5.0 % givenit happened 3.2 % of the time
Stock · next week · fall of 5 % or more11.1 % givenit happened 10.3 % of the time
Stock · next week · fall of 10 % or more3.0 % givenit happened 2.0 % of the time
Stock · next month · fall of 5 % or more23.0 % givenit happened 23.6 % of the time
Stock · next month · fall of 10 % or more11.4 % givenit happened 10.4 % of the time
The figures, with the number of cases
| For | Period | Fall of | Chance we gave | How often it happened | Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty | next week | 5 % or more | 4.4 % | 3.2 % | 249 |
| Nifty | next week | 10 % or more | 0.9 % | 0.4 % | 249 |
| Nifty | next month | 5 % or more | 13.1 % | 12.5 % | 170 |
| Nifty | next month | 10 % or more | 5.0 % | 3.2 % | 170 |
| Stock | next week | 5 % or more | 11.1 % | 10.3 % | 249 |
| Stock | next week | 10 % or more | 3.0 % | 2.0 % | 249 |
| Stock | next month | 5 % or more | 23.0 % | 23.6 % | 170 |
| Stock | next month | 10 % or more | 11.4 % | 10.4 % | 170 |
Long outlook: how the 1, 3 and 5-year outlooks did so far
| For | Years ahead | Periods that do not overlap | Direction right | Ended inside the 8-in-10 range | What the record can say |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shares | 1 | 5 | 68 % | 86 % | Too few cases |
| Shares | 3 | 1 | 82 % | 91 % | Too few cases |
| Shares | 5 | 1 | 76 % | 91 % | Too few cases |
| Indices | 1 | 9 | 67 % | 76 % | No edge |
| Indices | 3 | 3 | 77 % | 80 % | Too few cases |
| Indices | 5 | 2 | 66 % | 59 % | Too few cases |
Company figures are held from 2018, so few long periods have passed. Where the record is short we say so rather than claim a result.
Quality checklist
The fifth of companies passing the most checks against the fifth passing the fewest, over the following 12 months: -12.7 %, t-value -2.25 over 37 months.
Past results describe the past; they promise nothing. Descriptive analytics only. Never investment advice.